方法对比

	随机系统动力学	离散事件仿真 (DES)
领域	仿真	仿真
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1980s–2000s	1960s (formalized); modern computational form from 1970s onward
提出者	Jay W. Forrester (base SD); stochastic extensions developed through 1980s–2000s by multiple researchers	Banks, Carson, Nelson & Nicol (textbook lineage); foundational work by Tocher & Conway (1960s)
类型	Continuous stochastic simulation	Stochastic process simulation
开创性文献	Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159	Banks, J., Carson, J.S., Nelson, B.L. & Nicol, D.M. (2010). Discrete-Event System Simulation (5th ed.). Pearson. ISBN: 978-0136062127
别名	SSD, stochastic stock-flow modelling, probabilistic system dynamics, random system dynamics	DES, event-driven simulation, Ayrık Olay Simülasyonu (DES)
相关	5	4
摘要	Stochastic System Dynamics (SSD) extends conventional system dynamics by replacing fixed parameter values and deterministic flow equations with probability distributions and random draws. Running many replications of the stock-flow model yields probabilistic trajectories — confidence bands rather than single lines — enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification and risk analysis in complex feedback systems such as epidemic models, supply chains, and energy policy scenarios.	Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) is a computational modeling paradigm in which the state of a system changes only at a countable sequence of points in time — the events. Between events nothing changes, so the simulation clock jumps directly from one event to the next. Formalized through the foundational textbooks of Banks, Carson, Nelson and Nicol and of Law in the 1960s–2000s, DES has become the standard tool for analyzing queuing systems, healthcare patient flows, manufacturing lines, and logistics networks where entities move through resources over time.