方法对比

	随机马尔可夫模型	马尔可夫模型
领域	仿真	仿真
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1993	1906
提出者	Markov, A. A. (probabilistic extension developed by Sonnenberg & Beck and others)	Andrei Markov
类型	Probabilistic state-transition model with Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation	Probabilistic state-transition model
开创性文献	Sonnenberg, F. A., & Beck, J. R. (1993). Markov models in medical decision making: A practical guide. Medical Decision Making, 13(4), 322–338.	Norris, J. R. (1997). Markov Chains. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN: 9780521633963
别名	Probabilistic Markov Model, Stochastic Markov Chain, SMM, Monte Carlo Markov Model	Markov Chain, Discrete-Time Markov Chain, DTMC, Markov Process
相关	6	5
摘要	A Stochastic Markov Model is a simulation technique that represents a system as a set of mutually exclusive health or decision states, moves a cohort (or individual agents) through those states using probabilistically sampled transition parameters, and aggregates outcomes across thousands of Monte Carlo iterations to produce full probability distributions over costs, outcomes, or rankings rather than single point estimates.	A Markov Model represents a system as a finite set of states and specifies the probability of moving from one state to another at each time step. By capturing only the current state — not the full history — it enables tractable analysis of complex dynamic processes across health economics, engineering reliability, operations research, and social-science modeling.