方法对比

	空间反事实影响评估 (SCIE)	合成控制法 (SCM)
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2010s	2003–2010
提出者	Cerqua, Pellegrini, and regional-science scholars building on counterfactual econometrics	Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal (2003); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010)
类型	Quasi-experimental / causal inference	Quasi-experimental causal inference
开创性文献	Cerqua, A., & Pellegrini, G. (2014). Do subsidies to private capital boost firms' growth? A multiple regression discontinuity design approach. Journal of Public Economics, 109, 114-126.	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.
别名	SCIE, spatial CIE, place-based counterfactual evaluation, regional counterfactual analysis	SCM, synthetic control, synth estimator, Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller method
相关	5	4
摘要	Spatial Counterfactual Impact Evaluation (SCIE) is a family of quasi-experimental methods that estimate the causal effect of geographically targeted policies — such as EU Cohesion Funds, enterprise zones, or place-based subsidies — by constructing a spatial counterfactual: what outcomes the treated region would have experienced without the intervention, inferred from comparable untreated regions or from discontinuities at policy boundaries.	The Synthetic Control Method estimates the causal effect of a treatment or policy on a single treated unit by constructing a weighted combination of untreated units — the synthetic control — that closely resembles the treated unit before the intervention. The gap between the treated unit and its synthetic counterpart after the intervention is the estimated treatment effect.