方法对比

	Selectorate Theory Analysis	Polity Score Analysis
领域	International Relations	International Relations
方法族	MCDM	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2003	2020
提出者	Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph Siverson & James Morrow	Ted Robert Gurr, Monty Marshall & Keith Jaggers (Center for Systemic Peace)
类型	Formal theory of leader survival and policy choice	Composite ordinal measure of regime authority characteristics
开创性文献	Bueno de Mesquita, B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M., & Morrow, J. D. (2003). The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.	Marshall, M. G., & Gurr, T. R. (2020). Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2018 (Dataset Users' Manual). Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace.
别名	Selectorate Theory, Logic of Political Survival, Winning Coalition Analysis, Selectorate Model of Governance	Polity IV Analysis, Polity5 Analysis, Polity2 Score, Polity Index of Democracy and Autocracy
相关	3	3
摘要	Selectorate theory, developed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph Siverson, and James Morrow in The Logic of Political Survival (2003), explains policy and foreign-policy behavior as a by-product of leaders' overriding goal: staying in power. Every leader depends on a winning coalition (W) drawn from a larger selectorate (S) of those with a say in choosing leaders. The relative size of W and S determines whether a leader buys loyalty with broad public goods or narrow private rewards — which in turn shapes growth, war, peace, and the survival of regimes.	Polity score analysis uses the Polity dataset to measure and compare the regime characteristics of states on a continuum from full autocracy to full democracy. Maintained by the Center for Systemic Peace (Marshall and Gurr), Polity codes institutional features — how chief executives are recruited, the constraints on their authority, and the openness of political competition — into separate democracy and autocracy indices that combine into a single polity score from −10 to +10. It is one of the most widely used measures of regime type in comparative politics and international relations.