方法对比

	Scenario Axes Method	Three Horizons Framework
领域	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1995	2016
提出者	Paul J. H. Schoemaker; described in Bishop, Hines & Collins's survey of scenario techniques	Bill Sharpe, Anthony Hodgson, Graham Leicester (International Futures Forum)
类型	Deductive scenario-construction pipeline forming a 2x2 matrix from two critical uncertainties	Pattern-mapping pipeline for transformative change over time
开创性文献	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.	Sharpe, B., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., Lyon, A., & Fazey, I. (2016). Three horizons: a pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), 47.
别名	2x2 Scenario Matrix, Double-Uncertainty Axes, Deductive Scenario Method, Two-by-Two Scenario Method	Three Horizons Model, 3H Framework, Three Horizons Mapping, H1-H2-H3 Pathways
相关	4	3
摘要	The scenario axes method is the deductive, double-uncertainty technique at the heart of much modern scenario planning: take the two driving forces that matter most and are least predictable, cross them as orthogonal axes, and develop the four resulting quadrants into distinct, internally consistent scenarios. Paul Schoemaker's 1995 account of scenario planning as a tool for strategic thinking established the logic of building scenarios from a small set of critical uncertainties, and Bishop, Hines and Collins's survey of scenario techniques names the 2x2 axes approach as the most widely used deductive method. Its appeal is structural clarity: by reducing a tangle of forces to two key uncertainties and a clean matrix, it produces a manageable, memorable set of four contrasting futures that span the most important dimensions of uncertainty. Treated here as a standalone scenario-construction device, the method is prized for turning the open-ended art of scenario building into a disciplined, repeatable procedure.	The Three Horizons framework is a structured way of thinking about transformative change by mapping three overlapping curves of activity across time. Developed within the International Futures Forum and given its definitive articulation by Bill Sharpe, Anthony Hodgson, Graham Leicester and colleagues in their 2016 Ecology and Society paper, it distinguishes the first horizon (H1), the dominant present system that is declining in its fit with a changing world; the third horizon (H3), an emerging and viable future pattern that is currently marginal but growing; and the second horizon (H2), the turbulent zone of transition in which entrepreneurial innovations and experiments compete, some carrying the system toward H3 and others merely propping up H1. Rather than predicting a single future, the framework is a pathways practice that helps groups see the present as a contested landscape of patterns and locate their own intentions and actions within it.