方法对比
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| 稳健SARIMA模型× | SARIMA模型× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 计量经济学 | 计量经济学 |
| 方法族 | Regression model | Regression model |
| 起源年份≠ | 1979–2009 | 1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised) |
| 提出者≠ | Muler, Peña & Yohai (robust ARMA); earlier foundation by Denby & Martin (1979) | Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel |
| 类型≠ | Robust time-series model | Seasonal time series model |
| 开创性文献≠ | Muler, N., Peña, D., & Yohai, V. J. (2009). Robust estimation for ARMA models. The Annals of Statistics, 37(2), 816–840. DOI ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744 |
| 别名 | robust SARIMA, outlier-resistant SARIMA, robust seasonal ARIMA, M-estimator SARIMA | SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component |
| 相关≠ | 4 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Robust SARIMA extends the classical Seasonal ARIMA framework by replacing the standard least-squares criterion with a robust loss function — such as an M-estimator — so that outliers and heavy-tailed innovations in seasonal time series cannot distort parameter estimates or invalidate forecasts. | SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics. |
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