方法对比

	Risk-Needs Assessment	Recidivism Survival Analysis
领域	Criminology	Criminology
方法族	Process / pipeline	Survival analysis
起源年份	1990	1988
提出者	Donald A. Andrews & James Bonta	David R. Cox (method); Peter Schmidt & Ann Dryden Witte (criminological application)
类型	Structured offender risk/needs assessment framework	Time-to-event regression for reoffending
开创性文献	Andrews, D. A., & Bonta, J. (2010). The Psychology of Criminal Conduct (5th ed.). Routledge/Anderson. ISBN: 9781422463291	Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression models and life-tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 34(2), 187–202.
别名	RNR Assessment, Risk-Need-Responsivity Model, Risk/Needs Assessment, Criminogenic Needs Assessment	Time-to-Recidivism Modeling, Recidivism Hazard Modeling, Failure-Time Analysis of Reoffending, Survival Analysis of Reoffending
相关	4	4
摘要	Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) assessment is the dominant framework for structured assessment of justice-involved people, scoring an offender's criminogenic risk and needs to decide who receives intervention, what should be targeted, and how it should be delivered. Formulated by Donald Andrews and James Bonta, it organizes the strongest predictors of reoffending into the 'Central Eight' and converts them into a total risk score that guides the intensity of correctional supervision and treatment.	Recidivism survival analysis models the time from a release or index event until an individual reoffends, treating reoffending as a time-to-event ('failure') outcome with censoring for those not observed to fail. It applies survival methods — Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional-hazards regression, and split-population models — to answer not just whether someone recidivates but how quickly and what raises or lowers that risk over time.