方法对比

	基于风险的故障树分析	事件树分析 (ETA)
领域	实验设计	可靠性
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1961 (FTA origin); risk-based integration formalised 1975–1981	2002
提出者	H.A. Watson (Bell Labs) and developed further by Boeing/U.S. Air Force; risk-based extension via NRC probabilistic risk assessment programs	Andrews & Moss
类型	Quantitative safety and reliability analysis	Forward inductive logic tree
开创性文献	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG-0492.	Andrews, J. D., & Moss, T. R. (2002). Reliability and Risk Assessment (2nd ed.). Professional Engineering Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-86058-290-5
别名	RB-FTA, risk-informed FTA, quantitative fault tree analysis, probabilistic fault tree analysis	ETA, Event Sequence Diagram Analysis, Initiating Event Analysis, Olay Ağacı Analizi
相关	6	2
摘要	Risk-based fault tree analysis (RB-FTA) combines classical fault tree analysis with explicit quantitative risk assessment. Starting from an undesired top event, the analyst decomposes it into contributing causes using AND/OR logic gates, assigns failure probabilities to basic events from reliability databases or historical data, and then propagates those probabilities through the tree to compute top-event likelihood. The result is expressed as risk — probability weighted by consequence severity — enabling prioritisation of safety interventions by their actual risk reduction impact.	Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a forward inductive technique used in reliability and risk engineering to model the possible outcomes that follow an initiating event. Starting from a single undesired event, ETA traces all subsequent event sequences through a binary branching tree representing the success or failure of safety barriers and protective systems. Introduced formally in reliability and risk literature by Andrews and Moss (2002), it is widely applied in nuclear, chemical, and aerospace industries to quantify accident sequence probabilities and guide safety decision-making.