方法对比

	预后与剩余使用寿命（RUL）预测	Rainflow Counting
领域	可靠性工程	可靠性工程
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2000s	1974
提出者	George Vachtsevanos and others	Tatsuo Endo
类型	Predictive analytics methodology	Cycle counting algorithm
开创性文献	Vachtsevanos, G., Lewis, F. L., Roemer, M., Hess, A., & Wu, B. (2006). Intelligent Fault Diagnosis and Prognosis for Engineering Systems. Wiley.	Goodman, J. (1899). Mechanics Applied to Engineering. Longman, Green and Co.
别名	RUL, Remaining useful life, PHM, Prognostics and Health Management	Rainflow cycle counting, RFC
相关	4	4
摘要	Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a methodology for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of equipment by monitoring its condition and extrapolating degradation trends. Unlike reactive maintenance (wait for failure) or preventive maintenance (fixed schedules), prognostics enable predictive maintenance: act only when failure is imminent. Formalized in the 2000s by researchers including George Vachtsevanos, RUL prediction integrates sensor data, degradation models, and uncertainty quantification to inform maintenance planning and reduce downtime.	Rainflow counting is a fatigue cycle counting method that converts a complex stress history into individual cycles for damage assessment. Developed by Tatsuo Endo and colleagues in 1974, it provides the most physically realistic representation of fatigue damage when combined with Miner's linear cumulative damage hypothesis. The algorithm has become the industry standard in reliability engineering and vibration analysis.