方法对比

	预后与剩余使用寿命（RUL）预测	一阶可靠性方法 (FORM)
领域	可靠性工程	可靠性工程
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2000s	1969
提出者	George Vachtsevanos and others	Allin Cornell
类型	Predictive analytics methodology	Reliability analysis method
开创性文献	Vachtsevanos, G., Lewis, F. L., Roemer, M., Hess, A., & Wu, B. (2006). Intelligent Fault Diagnosis and Prognosis for Engineering Systems. Wiley.	Cornell, C. A. (1969). A probability-based structural code. Journal of the American Concrete Institute, 66(12), 974-985.
别名	RUL, Remaining useful life, PHM, Prognostics and Health Management	FORM, First-order second-moment method
相关	4	4
摘要	Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a methodology for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of equipment by monitoring its condition and extrapolating degradation trends. Unlike reactive maintenance (wait for failure) or preventive maintenance (fixed schedules), prognostics enable predictive maintenance: act only when failure is imminent. Formalized in the 2000s by researchers including George Vachtsevanos, RUL prediction integrates sensor data, degradation models, and uncertainty quantification to inform maintenance planning and reduce downtime.	The First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) is a probabilistic technique for estimating the probability of structural failure given uncertain input parameters. Developed by Allin Cornell in 1969 and refined by Hasofer and Lind in 1974, FORM provides a computationally efficient approximation to the true failure probability by linearizing the limit-state function at the most probable failure point. It has become the cornerstone of modern structural reliability analysis and risk-based design.