方法对比
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| 政策情景微观模拟× | 政策情景分析× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1957 | 1967–1990s |
| 提出者≠ | Guy H. Orcutt | Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD |
| 类型≠ | Simulation — individual-level policy scenario analysis | Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method |
| 开创性文献≠ | Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗ | Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | PSM, Policy Microsimulation, Scenario-Based Microsimulation, Policy Impact Microsimulation | PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Policy Scenario Microsimulation applies microsimulation methods to evaluate and compare the distributional and aggregate effects of alternative policy scenarios on a synthetic population. By simulating individual-level behaviour under each policy regime, researchers can measure winners and losers, fiscal costs, and equity outcomes before real implementation. | Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health. |
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