方法对比
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| 政策情景微观模拟× | 个体模拟× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份 | 1957 | 1957 |
| 提出者≠ | Guy H. Orcutt | Guy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projects |
| 类型≠ | Simulation — individual-level policy scenario analysis | Policy simulation / computational social science |
| 开创性文献≠ | Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗ | O'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald. DOI ↗ |
| 别名≠ | PSM, Policy Microsimulation, Scenario-Based Microsimulation, Policy Impact Microsimulation | Mikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulation |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Policy Scenario Microsimulation applies microsimulation methods to evaluate and compare the distributional and aggregate effects of alternative policy scenarios on a synthetic population. By simulating individual-level behaviour under each policy regime, researchers can measure winners and losers, fiscal costs, and equity outcomes before real implementation. | Microsimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation. |
| ScholarGate数据集 ↗ |
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