方法对比

	政策评估边际结构模型	反事实影响评估 (CIE)
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2000	1970s–2000s
提出者	James M. Robins, Miguel A. Hernan, Babette Brumback	Heckman, Imbens, Rubin, and the program evaluation literature
类型	Causal inference / weighted regression	Causal inference / program evaluation
开创性文献	Robins, J. M., Hernan, M. A., & Brumback, B. (2000). Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology. Epidemiology, 11(5), 550–560.	Heckman, J. J., & Vytlacil, E. J. (2007). Econometric evaluation of social programs, Part I: Causal models, structural models and econometric policy evaluation. Handbook of Econometrics, 6B, 4779-4874.
别名	MSM for policy evaluation, policy MSM, causal MSM, structural policy weighting model	CIE, counterfactual evaluation, counterfactual policy evaluation, impact evaluation
相关	6	5
摘要	A Policy Evaluation Marginal Structural Model (MSM) is a causal inference framework that estimates the population-average effect of a policy by using inverse probability weighting to create a pseudo-population in which treatment assignment is independent of measured confounders, enabling unbiased comparison of potential outcomes under different policy scenarios from observational data.	Counterfactual Impact Evaluation is a family of causal methods that estimates the effect of an intervention by comparing what actually happened to participants with what would have happened had the intervention not taken place. Formalised in the Rubin Causal Model and extended by Heckman, Imbens and others, CIE underlies most modern program and policy evaluation practice.