方法对比

	Pesaran-Timmermann 方向性预测准确性检验	Diebold-Mariano Test	符号检验
领域	计量经济学	计量经济学	统计学
方法族	Hypothesis test	Hypothesis test	Hypothesis test
起源年份	1992	1995	1946
提出者	M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann	Francis Diebold & Roberto Mariano	W. J. Dixon & A. M. Mood
类型	Nonparametric one-sided test	Non-parametric forecast comparison test	Nonparametric median test
开创性文献	Pesaran, M. H., & Timmermann, A. (1992). A simple nonparametric test of predictive performance. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(4), 461–465.	Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 253–263.	Dixon, W. J. & Mood, A. M. (1946). The statistical sign test. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 41(236), 557–566.
别名	PT Test, Directional Accuracy Test, Nonparametric Predictive Performance Test, Pesaran-Timmermann Yön Testi	DM Test, Test of Equal Forecast Accuracy, Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test, Tahmin Doğruluğu Eşitliği Testi	İşaret Testi (Sign Test), one-sample sign test, paired sign test
相关	3	3	4
摘要	Introduced by Pesaran and Timmermann (1992), the PT test is a nonparametric procedure that evaluates whether a forecasting model correctly predicts the direction (sign) of a target variable more often than would be expected by chance. It is widely used in financial econometrics and macroeconomic forecasting to assess the practical utility of a model beyond simple error metrics, particularly when the economic cost of getting the direction wrong is high.	The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test, introduced by Diebold and Mariano in 1995, is a widely used non-parametric procedure for formally comparing the predictive accuracy of two competing forecasting models. It evaluates whether the difference in forecast errors between two models is statistically significant, without requiring nested models or specific distributional assumptions about the forecasts, making it broadly applicable across economics, finance, and time-series analysis.	The sign test is the simplest nonparametric hypothesis test for deciding whether the median of paired differences — or of a single sample — differs significantly from a hypothesised value. Formalised by W. J. Dixon and A. M. Mood in 1946, it imposes virtually no distributional assumptions and can be applied to any data where individual differences can be classified as positive or negative.