方法对比

	非线性自回归移动平均模型 (NARMA)	自回归条件异方差 (ARCH) 模型	自回归移动平均模型 (ARMA)
领域	计量经济学	计量经济学	计量经济学
方法族	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1980s–1990s	1982	1970
提出者	Tong (1990); Granger & Terasvirta (1993)	Robert F. Engle	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
类型	Nonlinear time series model	Conditional volatility model	Time series model
开创性文献	Tong, H. (1990). Non-linear Time Series: A Dynamical System Approach. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0198522300	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
别名	NARMA, nonlinear ARMA, NLARMA, nonlinear autoregressive moving average	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)
相关	2	6	5
摘要	The Nonlinear ARMA (NARMA) model extends the classical linear ARMA framework by allowing the conditional mean to depend on past observations and past errors through an arbitrary nonlinear function. It captures complex dynamics — such as regime changes, asymmetric cycles, and threshold effects — that linear models miss, making it valuable for economic and financial time series.	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.