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个体模拟×系统动力学×
领域仿真仿真
方法族Process / pipelineProcess / pipeline
起源年份19571961
提出者Guy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projectsJay W. Forrester
类型Policy simulation / computational social scienceContinuous simulation / feedback modelling
开创性文献O'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald. DOI ↗Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159
别名Mikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulationstock-flow modelling, Sistem Dinamiği (Stock-Flow Modelleme), SD modelling, feedback simulation
相关53
摘要Microsimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation.System dynamics is a continuous simulation method, developed by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1961, that represents a complex system through stocks (accumulations), flows (rates of change), and feedback loops. By expressing these relationships as coupled ordinary differential equations, it reproduces how policies, delays, and nonlinear feedbacks drive system behaviour over time — making it a cornerstone tool in policy analysis, organisational modelling, and sustainability research.
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ScholarGate方法对比: Microsimulation · System Dynamics. 于 2026-06-15 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare