方法对比
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| 个体模拟× | 蒙特卡洛模拟× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | 仿真 | 决策 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| 起源年份≠ | 1957 | 1949 |
| 提出者≠ | Guy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projects | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| 类型≠ | Policy simulation / computational social science | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| 开创性文献≠ | O'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald. DOI ↗ | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| 别名≠ | Mikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulation | — |
| 相关≠ | 5 | 0 |
| 摘要≠ | Microsimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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