方法对比

	教育研究中的中断时间序列分析	倾向得分匹配
领域	因果推断	研究统计学
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1979-2002	1983
提出者	Shadish, Cook & Campbell (quasi-experimental design); Wagner et al. (segmented regression formalization)	Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin
类型	Quasi-experimental causal inference	Method
开创性文献	Shadish, W. R., Cook, T. D., & Campbell, D. T. (2002). Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal Inference. Houghton Mifflin. ISBN: 978-0395615560	Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55.
别名	ITS in education, educational ITS, segmented regression in education, policy interrupted time series	PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance
相关	4	3
摘要	Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the causal effect of an education policy or intervention by examining whether an outcome trend changes abruptly at the point of implementation. Applied to education, it is used to evaluate reforms, curriculum changes, testing policies, and school interventions using routinely collected longitudinal data without a randomised control group.	Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias.