方法对比

	Interrupted Time Series in Crime Analysis	中断时间序列（ITS）分析
领域	Criminology	因果推断
方法族	Process / pipeline	Regression model
起源年份	1980	2002
提出者	George E. P. Box & George C. Tiao (intervention analysis); David McDowall, Richard McCleary, and colleagues (criminological text)	Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)
类型	Quasi-experimental evaluation of a policy effect on a time series	Quasi-experimental segmented regression
开创性文献	McDowall, D., McCleary, R., Meidinger, E. E., & Hay, R. A. (1980). Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Sage Publications. ISBN: 9780803914933	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
别名	Crime Intervention Analysis, ITS Crime Evaluation, Quasi-Experimental Time Series for Crime, Pre-Post Crime Trend Analysis	ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi
相关	4	5
摘要	Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis evaluates whether a law, policy, or intervention changed the course of a crime series. By modeling the level and slope of crime before and after a dated 'interruption' — a gun-control law, a policing crackdown, a sentencing reform — it tests whether the series jumped or bent at that moment relative to its prior trend. Box and Tiao formalized intervention analysis in 1975, and McDowall, McCleary, and colleagues brought the method to criminology in their widely used 1980 monograph.	Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.