方法对比

	Giacomini-White 条件预测能力检验	时间序列交叉验证（滚动/扩展窗口）
领域	计量经济学	计量经济学
方法族	Hypothesis test	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2006	2012
提出者	Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White	Christoph Bergmeir & José Benítez
类型	Non-nested forecast comparison test	Forecast evaluation procedure
开创性文献	Giacomini, R., & White, H. (2006). Tests of conditional predictive ability. Econometrica, 74(6), 1545–1578.	Bergmeir, C., & Benítez, J. M. (2012). On the use of cross-validation for time series predictor evaluation. Information Sciences, 191, 192–213.
别名	GW Test, Conditional Predictive Ability Test, Giacomini-White CPA Test, Koşullu Tahmin Yeteneği Testi	Rolling-Origin Cross-Validation, Walk-Forward Validation, Expanding Window Evaluation, Zaman Serisi Çapraz Doğrulama
相关	3	3
摘要	The Giacomini-White (GW) test, introduced by Raffaella Giacomini and Halbert White in 2006, evaluates whether two competing forecasting methods have equal conditional predictive ability given information available at the time of forecast. Unlike unconditional tests such as the Diebold-Mariano test, it asks whether one method systematically outperforms the other in specific economic or market conditions, making it especially useful for practitioners who need state-dependent forecast comparisons.	Time-series cross-validation is a resampling procedure designed for sequentially ordered data. Instead of randomly partitioning observations — which would destroy temporal structure and introduce data leakage — it advances a forecast origin one step at a time, fitting a model on all past data up to that origin and evaluating it on the immediately following out-of-sample period. Economists, financial analysts, and meteorologists use it whenever an honest, operationally realistic estimate of predictive accuracy is required for a time-ordered process.