方法对比

	Foresight Scenario Method	Patent Analysis	Technology Foresight
领域	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1995	1994	1995
提出者	Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition	Francis Narin (patent bibliometrics) and the patent-analytics community	Ben R. Martin, Irene Miles, and the UK/Japanese foresight programmes
类型	Structured future-construction process	Document-based technological-intelligence process	Participatory future-oriented strategic process
开创性文献	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.	Narin, F. (1994). Patent bibliometrics. Scientometrics, 30(1), 147-155.	Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168.
别名	Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building	Patent analytics, Patent bibliometrics, Patent landscaping	Foresight studies, Strategic technology forecasting, Future-oriented technology analysis
相关	4	4	4
摘要	The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.	Patent analysis, or patanalytics, mines the documents and metadata in patent databases to generate technological intelligence. Because patents are structured, dated, classified, and citation-linked records of inventive activity, analysing patent counts, citations, classification codes, applicants, and text reveals who is innovating where, in which technologies, how fields connect, and how the technological landscape is shifting—evidence that feeds competitive intelligence, R&D strategy, and foresight.	Technology foresight is a systematic, participatory process of looking into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society in order to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Rather than predicting a single future, it brings experts and stakeholders together to explore plausible futures, build shared visions, and translate them into present-day priorities and action.