方法对比

	Distance Sampling	种群生存力分析
领域	生态学	生态学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1993	1981
提出者	Stephen Buckland	Mark Shaffer
类型	population abundance estimation	extinction risk assessment
开创性文献	Buckland, S. T., Anderson, D. R., Burnham, K. P., Laake, J. L., Borchers, D. L., & Thomas, L. (1993). Distance Sampling: Estimating Abundance of Biological Populations. Chapman and Hall, London.	Shaffer, M. L. (1981). Minimum population sizes for species conservation. BioScience, 31(2), 131-134.
别名	line transect, point transect, distance estimation, detection probability	PVA, extinction risk, minimum viable population, MVP
相关	4	4
摘要	Distance sampling is a statistical method for estimating population abundance from data on distances between observers and detected individuals. Developed by Buckland and colleagues (1993) and formalized in the software Distance, this approach accounts for imperfect detection: animals far from an observer are less likely to be detected. By modeling the detection function (probability of detecting an animal at various distances), distance sampling produces unbiased estimates of abundance and density even when detection is incomplete.	Population Viability Analysis (PVA), introduced by Shaffer (1981), estimates the probability that a population will persist over a given time period under specified conditions. PVA combines demographic models (Leslie matrices, IPMs) with stochastic simulation to project population trajectories, quantifying extinction risk. This allows conservation planners to assess whether a population will likely persist, evaluate management scenarios, and estimate the minimum viable population (MVP) size for long-term persistence. PVA is a decision-support tool, not a precise predictor.