方法对比

	Diebold-Mariano Test	Wald-Wolfowitz 游程检验	符号检验
领域	计量经济学	统计学	统计学
方法族	Hypothesis test	Hypothesis test	Hypothesis test
起源年份	1995	1940	1946
提出者	Francis Diebold & Roberto Mariano	Abraham Wald & Jacob Wolfowitz	W. J. Dixon & A. M. Mood
类型	Non-parametric forecast comparison test	Nonparametric randomness test	Nonparametric median test
开创性文献	Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 253–263.	Wald, A. & Wolfowitz, J. (1940). On a test whether two samples are from the same population. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 11(2), 147–162.	Dixon, W. J. & Mood, A. M. (1946). The statistical sign test. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 41(236), 557–566.
别名	DM Test, Test of Equal Forecast Accuracy, Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test, Tahmin Doğruluğu Eşitliği Testi	Wald-Wolfowitz test, runs test for randomness, Runs Testi (Wald-Wolfowitz)	İşaret Testi (Sign Test), one-sample sign test, paired sign test
相关	3	5	4
摘要	The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test, introduced by Diebold and Mariano in 1995, is a widely used non-parametric procedure for formally comparing the predictive accuracy of two competing forecasting models. It evaluates whether the difference in forecast errors between two models is statistically significant, without requiring nested models or specific distributional assumptions about the forecasts, making it broadly applicable across economics, finance, and time-series analysis.	The Wald-Wolfowitz runs test is a nonparametric hypothesis test that determines whether a sequence of observations — coded as a series of binary symbols — follows a random pattern or contains systematic structure. Introduced by Abraham Wald and Jacob Wolfowitz in 1940, the test counts the number of uninterrupted runs of identical symbols and asks whether that count is consistent with random arrangement.	The sign test is the simplest nonparametric hypothesis test for deciding whether the median of paired differences — or of a single sample — differs significantly from a hypothesised value. Formalised by W. J. Dixon and A. M. Mood in 1946, it imposes virtually no distributional assumptions and can be applied to any data where individual differences can be classified as positive or negative.