方法对比
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| 确定性微观模拟× | 马尔可夫模型× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1957 | 1906 |
| 提出者≠ | Guy H. Orcutt | Andrei Markov |
| 类型≠ | Individual-level deterministic rule application | Probabilistic state-transition model |
| 开创性文献≠ | Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗ | Norris, J. R. (1997). Markov Chains. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN: 9780521633963 |
| 别名 | Arithmetic Microsimulation, Static Tax-Benefit Microsimulation, Deterministic Policy Simulation, Rule-based Microsimulation | Markov Chain, Discrete-Time Markov Chain, DTMC, Markov Process |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Deterministic Microsimulation applies a fixed set of policy rules or behavioral equations to each individual or household record in a microdata file, computing exact outcomes without any random sampling. It is the standard engine behind tax-benefit calculators and demographic projection models used by governments worldwide. | A Markov Model represents a system as a finite set of states and specifies the probability of moving from one state to another at each time step. By capturing only the current state — not the full history — it enables tractable analysis of complex dynamic processes across health economics, engineering reliability, operations research, and social-science modeling. |
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