方法对比

	确定性马尔可夫模型	随机马尔可夫模型
领域	仿真	仿真
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1993	1993
提出者	Sonnenberg, F. A. & Beck, J. R.	Markov, A. A. (probabilistic extension developed by Sonnenberg & Beck and others)
类型	Cohort state-transition model with fixed transition probabilities	Probabilistic state-transition model with Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
开创性文献	Sonnenberg, F. A., & Beck, J. R. (1993). Markov models in medical decision making: a practical guide. Medical Decision Making, 13(4), 322–338.	Sonnenberg, F. A., & Beck, J. R. (1993). Markov models in medical decision making: A practical guide. Medical Decision Making, 13(4), 322–338.
别名	DMM, Deterministic Markov Chain, Cohort Markov Model, Fixed-Parameter Markov Model	Probabilistic Markov Model, Stochastic Markov Chain, SMM, Monte Carlo Markov Model
相关	5	6
摘要	A Deterministic Markov Model is a cohort-level state-transition model in which all transition probabilities, state utilities, and costs are assigned single fixed values and the model is solved analytically in a single pass. Widely used in health technology assessment, policy analysis, and operations research, it traces a hypothetical cohort through mutually exclusive health or system states over discrete time cycles, accumulating expected outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or costs.	A Stochastic Markov Model is a simulation technique that represents a system as a set of mutually exclusive health or decision states, moves a cohort (or individual agents) through those states using probabilistically sampled transition parameters, and aggregates outcomes across thousands of Monte Carlo iterations to produce full probability distributions over costs, outcomes, or rankings rather than single point estimates.