方法对比
并排查看您选择的方法；存在差异的行会高亮显示。
| Croston方法用于间歇性需求× | ARIMA（自回归积分滑动平均）模型× | Theta 方法× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 计量经济学 | 计量经济学 | 计量经济学 |
| 方法族 | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| 起源年份≠ | 1972 | 2015 | 2000 |
| 提出者≠ | J. D. Croston (1972) | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Assimakopoulos & Nikolopoulos |
| 类型≠ | Intermittent demand time-series forecasting | Univariate time-series model | Univariate time-series forecasting model |
| 开创性文献≠ | Croston, J. D. (1972). Forecasting and Stock Control for Intermittent Demands. Operational Research Quarterly, 23(3), 289-303. DOI ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K. (2000). The Theta Model: A Decomposition Approach to Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 521-530. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | Croston method, intermittent demand forecasting, Croston Yöntemi — Aralıklı Talep Tahmini | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | theta model, theta forecasting, Theta Yöntemi — M3 Tahmin Yarışması Birincisi |
| 相关≠ | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 摘要≠ | Croston's method, introduced by J. D. Croston in 1972, is a time-series forecasting technique built for intermittent demand series in which periods of zero demand are frequent. Instead of forecasting the raw series, it models the size of demand when it occurs and the interval between demand occurrences as two separate processes. | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | The Theta Method is a univariate time-series forecasting model introduced by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos in 2000. It decomposes a series into two theta lines that capture its long-run trend and its short-run dynamics, forecasts each line separately, and combines them by a weighted average. Its simplicity and accuracy made it the winner of the M3 forecasting competition. |
| ScholarGate数据集 ↗ |
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