方法对比

	教育研究中的反事实影响评估	倾向得分匹配
领域	因果推断	研究统计学
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2000s–2010s	1983
提出者	Blundell & Costa Dias; formalized for EU education policy by the European Commission Joint Research Centre	Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin
类型	Quasi-experimental causal inference framework	Method
开创性文献	Blundell, R., & Costa Dias, M. (2002). Alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics. Portuguese Economic Journal, 1(2), 91-115.	Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55.
别名	CIE in education, counterfactual program evaluation, causal impact evaluation, education policy impact evaluation	PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance
相关	5	3
摘要	Counterfactual impact evaluation (CIE) is the systematic application of causal inference designs — such as difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, matching, and instrumental variables — to measure the genuine effect of education programs, policies, or interventions by constructing a credible counterfactual: what would have happened to participants had they not been treated.	Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias.