方法对比

	反事实影响评估 (CIE)	倾向得分匹配
领域	因果推断	研究统计学
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1970s–2000s	1983
提出者	Heckman, Imbens, Rubin, and the program evaluation literature	Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin
类型	Causal inference / program evaluation	Method
开创性文献	Heckman, J. J., & Vytlacil, E. J. (2007). Econometric evaluation of social programs, Part I: Causal models, structural models and econometric policy evaluation. Handbook of Econometrics, 6B, 4779-4874.	Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55.
别名	CIE, counterfactual evaluation, counterfactual policy evaluation, impact evaluation	PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance
相关	5	3
摘要	Counterfactual Impact Evaluation is a family of causal methods that estimates the effect of an intervention by comparing what actually happened to participants with what would have happened had the intervention not taken place. Formalised in the Rubin Causal Model and extended by Heckman, Imbens and others, CIE underlies most modern program and policy evaluation practice.	Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias.