方法对比

	Counterfactual Analysis	过程追踪
领域	International Relations	心理测量学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Latent structure
起源年份	1991	2005
提出者	James Fearon (methodological treatment); Tetlock & Belkin (framework)	Alexander George, Andrew Bennett
类型	Method of causal reasoning via hypothetical alternatives	Qualitative causal inference
开创性文献	Fearon, J. D. (1991). Counterfactuals and hypothesis testing in political science. World Politics, 43(2), 169–195.	Bennett, A., & Checkel, J. T. (Eds.). (2015). Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Cambridge University Press.
别名	Counterfactual Reasoning in IR, What-If Analysis in International Relations, Counterfactual Thought Experiments, Hypothetical Case Analysis	—
相关	3	5
摘要	Counterfactual analysis evaluates causal claims in international relations by reasoning about what would have happened had some antecedent been different: had the archduke not been assassinated, had the United States not deployed missiles, had a leader chosen otherwise. As Fearon (1991) argues, such counterfactuals play a necessary if often implicit role in testing hypotheses about singular and small-N events, where ordinary statistical comparison is impossible. Done rigorously — with plausible antecedents, sound connecting principles, and attention to confounders — counterfactual analysis disciplines the 'what if' reasoning that pervades historical and conflict explanation.	Process Tracing is a qualitative research method developed by George and Bennett (2005) for studying causal mechanisms and causal chains within individual cases. It involves examining the sequence of events and decision-making processes within a case to infer whether a hypothesized causal mechanism actually operated. Process tracing aims to strengthen causal inference in case studies by looking beyond correlation to understand how causes produce effects.