方法对比

	有条件过程分析（有调节的中介）	贝叶斯结构方程模型 (BSEM)	因果中介分析（自然直接效应和自然间接效应）
领域	因果推断	贝叶斯	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Bayesian methods	Regression model
起源年份	2018	2012	2010
提出者	Andrew F. Hayes (PROCESS framework); Preacher, Rucker & Hayes (moderated mediation)	Bengt Muthén & Tihomir Asparouhov	Pearl (2001); general framework by Imai, Keele & Tingley (2010)
类型	Regression-based conditional process model	Bayesian latent variable model	Counterfactual causal decomposition
开创性文献	Hayes, A. F. (2018). Introduction to Mediation, Moderation, and Conditional Process Analysis: A Regression-Based Approach (2nd ed.). The Guilford Press. ISBN: 978-1462534654	Muthén, B. & Asparouhov, T. (2012). Bayesian SEM: A More Flexible Representation of Substantive Theory. Psychological Methods, 17(3), 313–335.	Pearl, J. (2001). Direct and Indirect Effects. In Proceedings of the Seventeenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 411-420.
别名	moderated mediation, moderated mediation analysis, PROCESS model, Hayes PROCESS conditional process model	BSEM, Bayesian latent variable model, approximate zero constraints SEM, Bayesçi Yapısal Eşitlik Modeli	natural direct effect, natural indirect effect, NDE / NIE decomposition, counterfactual mediation
相关	5	6	5
摘要	Conditional process analysis is Andrew F. Hayes's regression-based PROCESS framework (2018) that combines mediation and moderation in a single model, testing how an indirect effect changes across levels of a moderator. It quantifies conditional indirect and conditional direct effects and tests them with bootstrap confidence intervals.	Bayesian SEM, introduced by Muthén and Asparouhov in 2012, extends classical structural equation modeling by placing prior distributions on factor loadings, path coefficients, and covariances. Instead of returning a single maximum-likelihood estimate, it uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to produce a full posterior distribution for every parameter, enabling principled uncertainty quantification in models with latent variables.	Causal mediation analysis is a counterfactual framework that splits a treatment's total effect into a Natural Direct Effect (NDE) and a Natural Indirect Effect (NIE) that runs through a mediator. The modern general approach was formalised by Pearl (2001) and Imai, Keele and Tingley (2010), giving the decomposition a precise causal interpretation.