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| 奖惩系统× | 可信度理论× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 精算学 | 精算学 |
| 方法族 | Regression model | Regression model |
| 起源年份≠ | 1995 | 1967 |
| 提出者≠ | Jean Lemaire | Hans Bühlmann |
| 类型≠ | Actuarial experience-rating model | Weighted linear blend of individual and collective experience |
| 开创性文献≠ | Lemaire, J. (1995). Bonus-Malus Systems in Automobile Insurance. Kluwer Academic Publishers. ISBN: 978-0-7923-9545-5 | Bühlmann, H. (1967). Experience rating and credibility. ASTIN Bulletin, 4(3), 199–207. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | No-Claim Discount System, Merit Rating System, Experience Rating in Automobile Insurance, Prim-Ceza Sistemi | Bühlmann Credibility, Experience Rating, Linear Credibility Estimator, Güvenilirlik Teorisi |
| 相关≠ | 2 | 3 |
| 摘要≠ | A Bonus-Malus System (BMS) is an actuarial experience-rating mechanism used primarily in automobile insurance to adjust individual policyholders' premiums based on their personal claim history. Policyholders who remain claim-free receive premium discounts (bonus), while those who file claims are penalised with surcharges (malus). The framework was comprehensively formalised and analysed by Jean Lemaire in his landmark 1995 monograph, which remains the definitive reference for the design and evaluation of such systems worldwide. | Credibility Theory is an actuarial framework for estimating the pure premium of an individual risk by blending its own observed loss experience with the collective (portfolio) mean. Introduced by Hans Bühlmann in 1967, the method derives the optimal linear combination—the credibility-weighted premium—that minimises mean squared error. It extends classical experience rating to a rigorous statistical footing rooted in Bayesian and linear estimation principles. |
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