方法对比

	贝叶斯结构方程模型 (BSEM)	因果中介分析（自然直接效应和自然间接效应）	回归断点设计 (Regression Discontinuity Design, RDD)
领域	贝叶斯	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Bayesian methods	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2012	2010	2008
提出者	Bengt Muthén & Tihomir Asparouhov	Pearl (2001); general framework by Imai, Keele & Tingley (2010)	Imbens & Lemieux (guide to practice); Cattaneo, Idrobo & Titiunik (practical introduction)
类型	Bayesian latent variable model	Counterfactual causal decomposition	Quasi-experimental causal design
开创性文献	Muthén, B. & Asparouhov, T. (2012). Bayesian SEM: A More Flexible Representation of Substantive Theory. Psychological Methods, 17(3), 313–335.	Pearl, J. (2001). Direct and Indirect Effects. In Proceedings of the Seventeenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 411-420.	Imbens, G. W., & Lemieux, T. (2008). Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice. Journal of Econometrics, 142(2), 615-635.
别名	BSEM, Bayesian latent variable model, approximate zero constraints SEM, Bayesçi Yapısal Eşitlik Modeli	natural direct effect, natural indirect effect, NDE / NIE decomposition, counterfactual mediation	RDD, regression discontinuity design, sharp RDD, fuzzy RDD
相关	6	5	5
摘要	Bayesian SEM, introduced by Muthén and Asparouhov in 2012, extends classical structural equation modeling by placing prior distributions on factor loadings, path coefficients, and covariances. Instead of returning a single maximum-likelihood estimate, it uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to produce a full posterior distribution for every parameter, enabling principled uncertainty quantification in models with latent variables.	Causal mediation analysis is a counterfactual framework that splits a treatment's total effect into a Natural Direct Effect (NDE) and a Natural Indirect Effect (NIE) that runs through a mediator. The modern general approach was formalised by Pearl (2001) and Imai, Keele and Tingley (2010), giving the decomposition a precise causal interpretation.	Regression Discontinuity Design is a quasi-experimental method that identifies a causal effect by locally comparing units just above and just below a cutoff on a continuous assignment (running) variable. Formalised for applied work by Imbens and Lemieux (2008) and developed as a practical framework by Cattaneo, Idrobo, and Titiunik (2020), it estimates a local average treatment effect (LATE) at the threshold.