方法对比
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| 贝叶斯筛查检验评估× | 筛查试验评估× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 流行病学 | 流行病学 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1763 (theorem); clinical screening application formalized ~1959–1970s | 1968 (Wilson-Jungner principles); statistical framework developed 1970s–2000s |
| 提出者≠ | Thomas Bayes (theorem, 1763); applied to clinical screening by Ledley & Lusted (1959) | Wilson & Jungner (WHO criteria, 1968); foundational work by Pepe, Altman, and others in statistical test evaluation |
| 类型≠ | Bayesian analytical framework for test evaluation | Observational diagnostic / epidemiological evaluation design |
| 开创性文献≠ | Fletcher, R. H., Fletcher, S. W., & Fletcher, G. S. (2014). Clinical Epidemiology: The Essentials (5th ed.). Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. ISBN: 978-1451144475 | Wilson, J. M. G., & Jungner, G. (1968). Principles and Practice of Screening for Disease. World Health Organization. Public Health Papers No. 34. link ↗ |
| 别名 | Bayesian diagnostic test evaluation, Bayesian predictive value analysis, posterior predictive value approach, Bayes theorem screening | screening study, screening performance evaluation, screening accuracy assessment, STE |
| 相关 | 6 | 6 |
| 摘要≠ | Bayesian screening test evaluation applies Bayes' theorem to quantify how a screening test result changes the probability that an individual truly has a disease. Rather than reporting sensitivity and specificity in isolation, the approach centres on predictive values — the probability of disease given a positive or negative test — which depend critically on disease prevalence in the population being screened. The framework allows systematic updating of pre-test probability to post-test probability and supports decision-making under uncertainty. | Screening test evaluation is a systematic epidemiological approach for assessing whether a test or program can accurately and cost-effectively identify individuals with a condition before symptoms appear. It quantifies diagnostic performance metrics — sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and the ROC curve — and evaluates whether a screening program meets established public health criteria for adoption and harm-benefit balance. |
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