方法对比

	贝叶斯筛查检验评估	病例对照研究
领域	流行病学	流行病学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1763 (theorem); clinical screening application formalized ~1959–1970s	1950s (formal methodology); precursors in the 1920s
提出者	Thomas Bayes (theorem, 1763); applied to clinical screening by Ledley & Lusted (1959)	Janet Lane-Claypon (early precursors, 1926); formalized by Brian MacMahon and Jerome Cornfield in the 1950s–1960s
类型	Bayesian analytical framework for test evaluation	Observational analytic study design
开创性文献	Fletcher, R. H., Fletcher, S. W., & Fletcher, G. S. (2014). Clinical Epidemiology: The Essentials (5th ed.). Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. ISBN: 978-1451144475	Schlesselman, J.J. (1982). Case-Control Studies: Design, Conduct, Analysis. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0195027860
别名	Bayesian diagnostic test evaluation, Bayesian predictive value analysis, posterior predictive value approach, Bayes theorem screening	case-referent study, case-control design, retrospective case-control, case-control analysis
相关	6	6
摘要	Bayesian screening test evaluation applies Bayes' theorem to quantify how a screening test result changes the probability that an individual truly has a disease. Rather than reporting sensitivity and specificity in isolation, the approach centres on predictive values — the probability of disease given a positive or negative test — which depend critically on disease prevalence in the population being screened. The framework allows systematic updating of pre-test probability to post-test probability and supports decision-making under uncertainty.	A case-control study is a retrospective observational design in which individuals who have developed a disease or outcome of interest (cases) are compared with individuals who have not (controls) to determine whether prior exposure to a putative risk factor differs between the two groups. The primary measure of association is the odds ratio, which approximates the relative risk when the outcome is rare. Case-control studies are especially efficient for investigating rare diseases and generating etiological hypotheses.