方法对比

	Bayesian Regression	中断时间序列（ITS）分析
领域	贝叶斯	因果推断
方法族	Bayesian methods	Regression model
起源年份	—	2002
提出者	—	Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)
类型	Bayesian linear model	Quasi-experimental segmented regression
开创性文献	Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
别名	bayesian linear regression, probabilistic regression, bayesian regresyon	ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi
相关	2	5
摘要	Bayesian regression is a probabilistic version of linear regression that treats the model parameters as uncertain quantities. Instead of returning a single best-fit estimate, it combines prior knowledge with the observed data to produce a full posterior probability distribution for each parameter, from which credible intervals and predictions are read off.	Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.