方法对比

	贝叶斯排队模拟	随机排队模拟
领域	仿真	仿真
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1994	1953
提出者	Armero, C. & Bayarri, M. J.	Kendall, D. G.
类型	Bayesian inference + stochastic simulation	Stochastic simulation — waiting-line system analysis
开创性文献	Armero, C., & Bayarri, M. J. (1994). Bayesian prediction in M/M/1 queues. Queueing Systems, 15(1–4), 401–417.	Kendall, D. G. (1953). Stochastic processes occurring in the theory of queues and their analysis by the method of the imbedded Markov chain. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 24(3), 338–354.
别名	BQS, Bayesian Queue Simulation, Bayesian Stochastic Queueing, Bayesian Queuing Analysis	SQS, Probabilistic Queueing Simulation, Stochastic Queue Modeling, Random Queueing Simulation
相关	6	6
摘要	Bayesian Queueing Simulation combines Bayesian statistical inference with stochastic queueing simulation to model waiting-line systems under parameter uncertainty. Instead of treating arrival and service rates as fixed known values, it places prior distributions over them, updates these with observed data to obtain posteriors, and propagates the resulting parameter uncertainty through repeated simulation runs to produce probabilistic predictions of system performance metrics such as queue length, waiting time, and server utilisation.	Stochastic Queueing Simulation models waiting-line systems where arrival and service processes follow probability distributions rather than fixed rates. By simulating thousands of random events, it estimates performance measures — mean waiting time, queue length, server utilization — under realistic uncertainty, making it the standard tool for designing and evaluating service systems from hospitals to call centers.