方法对比

	贝叶斯工具变量 (Bayesian IV)	因果推断的工具变量（IV）方法
领域	因果推断	卫生经济学
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2003	1990s (modern applications)
提出者	Kleibergen & Zivot (2003); Lancaster (2004)	Angrist & Pischke (applied econometrics); rooted in econometric theory
类型	Causal inference / Bayesian estimation	Method
开创性文献	Kleibergen, F., & Zivot, E. (2003). Bayesian and classical approaches to instrumental variable regression. Journal of Econometrics, 114(1), 29-72.	Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
别名	Bayesian IV, Bayesian 2SLS, Bayesian LIML, BayesIV	IV, two-stage least squares, TSLS, causal estimation
相关	6	3
摘要	Bayesian Instrumental Variables combines the instrumental variable strategy for addressing endogeneity with Bayesian posterior inference. Instead of relying on asymptotic sampling distributions, it places prior distributions over all structural parameters and recovers a full posterior distribution for the causal effect, providing probability statements about the parameter rather than p-values — especially valuable when instruments are weak or the sample is small.	Instrumental variables (IV) is an econometric method to estimate causal effects when treatment or exposure is not randomly assigned and confounding is severe or unmeasured. IV relies on a third variable (instrument) that influences treatment but does not directly affect the outcome, allowing researchers to isolate the causal effect from the noise of confounding. Developed extensively in econometrics (Angrist & Pischke, 1990s–2000s), IV methods are increasingly used in health economics and health services research to leverage natural experiments and policy changes.