方法对比

	贝叶斯推断	证据的Dempster-Shafer理论	可能性理论
领域	统计学	软计算	软计算
方法族	Bayesian methods	Machine learning	Machine learning
起源年份	1763	1976	1988
提出者	Thomas Bayes; Pierre-Simon Laplace	Arthur P. Dempster & Glenn Shafer	Lotfi Zadeh; Didier Dubois & Henri Prade
类型	Probabilistic inference paradigm	Uncertainty calculus for combining evidence	Uncertainty quantification framework
开创性文献	Bayes, T. (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53, 370–418.	Dempster, A. P. (1967). Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 38(2), 325–339.	Dubois, D., & Prade, H. (1988). Possibility Theory: An Approach to Computerized Processing of Uncertainty. Plenum Press. ISBN: 978-0-306-42520-2
别名	Bayes inference, Bayesian statistics, Bayesian updating, posterior inference	evidence theory, belief functions, evidential reasoning, Dempster-Shafer kanıt teorisi	Fuzzy Possibility Theory, Possibilistic Reasoning, Olasılık Teorisi (Bulanık), Possibility Distribution Theory
相关	3	4	3
摘要	Bayesian inference is a statistical paradigm in which probability represents degrees of belief rather than long-run frequencies. It encodes prior knowledge about parameters in a prior distribution, combines that prior with the likelihood of observed data via Bayes' theorem, and produces a posterior distribution that quantifies updated uncertainty. The foundational theorem was published posthumously by Thomas Bayes in 1763 and subsequently systematized by Pierre-Simon Laplace in his 1812 Théorie analytique des probabilités.	Dempster-Shafer theory is a mathematical framework for reasoning under uncertainty that generalizes Bayesian probability by representing ignorance explicitly. Instead of forcing a single probability on each hypothesis, it assigns belief mass to sets of hypotheses and derives a belief-plausibility interval, and it provides Dempster's rule for fusing evidence from multiple independent sources. Developed from Arthur Dempster's 1967 work and Glenn Shafer's 1976 monograph, it underpins evidential reasoning and sensor/decision fusion.	Possibility Theory is a mathematical framework for representing and reasoning under uncertainty, introduced by Lotfi Zadeh in 1978 and systematically developed by Didier Dubois and Henri Prade in their 1988 monograph. It uses possibility distributions — functions assigning a degree in [0,1] to each element of a universe — to encode what is plausible or consistent with available information, complementing probability theory for situations where data is scarce or knowledge is imprecise.