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Bai-Perron 多重结构断点检验×Chow结构性断裂检验×CUSUM检验:检测回归模型中的参数不稳定性×
领域计量经济学计量经济学计量经济学
方法族Hypothesis testRegression modelHypothesis test
起源年份199819601975
提出者Jushan Bai & Pierre PerronGregory C. ChowBrown, Durbin & Evans
类型Sequential hypothesis test for multiple structural breaksTest for structural break in regression coefficientsRecursive residual test
开创性文献Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78. DOI ↗Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591–605. DOI ↗Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 37(2), 149–192. DOI ↗
别名Bai-Perron Multiple Break Test, Multiple Structural Change Test, Sequential Structural Break Test, Çoklu Yapısal Kırılma TestiChow breakpoint test, structural break test, Chow yapısal kırılma testiCumulative Sum Test, CUSUMSQ Test, Brown-Durbin-Evans Test, Kümülatif Toplam Testi
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摘要The Bai-Perron test, introduced by Jushan Bai and Pierre Perron in their landmark 1998 Econometrica paper, is a least-squares-based procedure for detecting, estimating, and testing the number of structural breaks in a linear regression model estimated on time-series data. Unlike single-break tests, it simultaneously identifies multiple change-points in a sample, providing economists and empirical researchers with a rigorous, data-driven way to locate parameter instability across time.The Chow test, introduced by Gregory Chow in 1960, checks whether the coefficients of a linear regression are the same across two subsamples — that is, whether a structural break occurs at a known point such as a policy change, crisis, or regime shift. It compares the fit of a single pooled regression with the combined fit of two separate regressions; a large improvement from splitting indicates the relationship differs between the two periods or groups.The CUSUM (Cumulative Sum) and CUSUMSQ (Cumulative Sum of Squares) tests, introduced by Brown, Durbin, and Evans (1975), assess whether the coefficients of a linear regression model remain constant over time. They are standard tools in econometrics for detecting structural breaks, policy shifts, or regime changes in time-series data without requiring prior knowledge of when a break occurs.
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ScholarGate方法对比: Bai-Perron Test · Chow Test · CUSUM Test. 于 2026-06-20 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare