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自回归条件异方差 (ARCH) 模型×向量自回归 (VAR)×
领域计量经济学计量经济学
方法族Regression modelRegression model
起源年份19821980
提出者Robert F. EngleChristopher A. Sims
类型Conditional volatility modelMultivariate time-series model
开创性文献Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. DOI ↗Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48. DOI ↗
别名ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance modelVAR, VAR model, vector autoregressive model, multivariate autoregression
相关65
摘要The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model in which each variable is regressed on its own lags and the lags of all other variables in the system. Originally proposed by Sims (1980) as a data-driven alternative to large structural macroeconomic models, VAR has become the standard workhorse for dynamic analysis in empirical economics and finance.
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ScholarGate方法对比: ARCH model · Vector Autoregression. 于 2026-06-17 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare