方法对比

	Agent-Based Scenario Analysis	基于主体的建模（ABM）
领域	仿真	仿真
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1990s–2000s	1970s–1990s (formalized as a field)
提出者	Axelrod, R.; Schoemaker, P. J. H. (combined lineage)	Thomas Schelling and Robert Axelrod (foundational contributions, 1970s–1990s)
类型	Hybrid simulation–scenario method	Computational simulation method
开创性文献	Axelrod, R. (1997). The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration. Princeton University Press. Princeton, NJ. ISBN: 9780691015675	Axelrod, R. (1997). The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration. Princeton University Press.
别名	ABSA, ABM scenario analysis, agent-based scenario planning, scenario-driven ABM	ABM, Ajan Tabanlı Modelleme (ABM), multi-agent simulation, individual-based modeling
相关	4	5
摘要	Agent-based scenario analysis embeds agent-based simulation models inside a structured scenario planning framework. Researchers define two to four contrasting future scenarios, configure agent populations and environmental rules to reflect each scenario's assumptions, run the simulation under each condition, and compare emergent outcomes. This makes it possible to explore how decentralized individual behaviors aggregate into system-level consequences under radically different futures.	Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a computational simulation method, formalized through the work of Thomas Schelling and Robert Axelrod in the 1970s–1990s, that simulates the behavior of complex systems by specifying and running autonomous agents — individuals, firms, cells, or any bounded entity — whose local interactions with each other and with their environment collectively produce global, system-level patterns that could not be predicted from any single agent's rules alone.