So sánh phương pháp

	Mô hình Tự hồi quy Vector (VAR)	Mô hình ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average)
Lĩnh vực	Kinh tế lượng	Kinh tế lượng
Họ	Regression model	Regression model
Năm ra đời	1980	1970
Người khởi xướng	Christopher A. Sims	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
Loại	Multivariate time-series model	Time series model
Công trình gốc	Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
Tên gọi khác	VAR, VAR model, vector autoregressive model, multivariate autoregression	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)
Liên quan	5	5
Tóm tắt	Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model in which each variable is regressed on its own lags and the lags of all other variables in the system. Originally proposed by Sims (1980) as a data-driven alternative to large structural macroeconomic models, VAR has become the standard workhorse for dynamic analysis in empirical economics and finance.	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.