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| Số sinh sản cơ bản (R0) và số sinh sản hiệu dụng (Rt)× | Mô hình Dịch tễ học Compartmental SIR× | Phương trình vi phân ngẫu nhiên (SDEs)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lĩnh vực≠ | Dịch tễ học | Dịch tễ học | Mô phỏng |
| Họ≠ | Regression model | Regression model | Process / pipeline |
| Năm ra đời≠ | 1990 | 1927 | 1944 (theory); 1992 (numerical framework) |
| Người khởi xướng≠ | Diekmann, Heesterbeek & Metz | Kermack & McKendrick | Kiyosi Itô (Itô calculus, 1944); Peter Kloeden & Eckhard Platen (numerical methods, 1992) |
| Loại≠ | Threshold parameter for epidemic spread | Deterministic compartmental ODE model | Continuous-time stochastic process model |
| Công trình gốc≠ | Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A. P., & Metz, J. A. J. (1990). On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28(4), 365–382. link ↗ | Kermack, W. O., & McKendrick, A. G. (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 115(772), 700–721. DOI ↗ | Øksendal, B. (2003). Stochastic Differential Equations: An Introduction with Applications (6th ed.). Springer. DOI ↗ |
| Tên gọi khác≠ | Basic Reproduction Ratio, Effective Reproduction Number, Net Reproduction Number, Temel Üreme Sayısı | Kermack–McKendrick Model, Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Model, Compartmental Epidemic Model, SIR Epidemiyoloji Modeli | SDE, Itô equations, Stokastik Diferansiyel Denklemler (SDE) |
| Liên quan≠ | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Tóm tắt≠ | The basic reproduction number R0 is the expected number of secondary infections produced by a single infectious individual introduced into a fully susceptible population. Formally defined and computationally grounded by Diekmann, Heesterbeek, and Metz in 1990 using the next-generation matrix approach, R0 serves as the central threshold parameter in mathematical epidemiology: if R0 > 1, an epidemic can establish itself; if R0 < 1, the outbreak dies out. The effective reproduction number Rt extends this to partially immune or partially susceptible populations over time. | The SIR model is a foundational mathematical framework for describing the spread of infectious diseases through a population. Introduced by William Ogilvy Kermack and Anderson Gray McKendrick in 1927, it partitions a closed population of size N into three mutually exclusive compartments: Susceptible (S), Infectious (I), and Recovered (R). A system of ordinary differential equations governs the flow of individuals between compartments, capturing epidemic dynamics with two key parameters — the transmission rate β and the recovery rate γ. | Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are differential equation models that combine a deterministic drift term — governing the average tendency of a system — with a stochastic diffusion term driven by a Wiener process (Brownian motion). Pioneered through Itô calculus by Kiyosi Itô in 1944 and given a comprehensive numerical treatment by Kloeden and Platen in 1992, SDEs are the standard modelling language for continuous-time systems subject to random noise, including financial asset prices, population dynamics, and physical processes. |
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