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| Mô hình Vỡ nợ Merton× | Định giá trung lập rủi ro× | |
|---|---|---|
| Lĩnh vực | Tài chính định lượng | Tài chính định lượng |
| Họ | Regression model | Regression model |
| Năm ra đời≠ | 1974 | 1979 |
| Người khởi xướng≠ | Robert C. Merton | John Harrison and David Kreps |
| Loại≠ | Credit Risk Model | Fundamental Principle |
| Công trình gốc≠ | Merton, R. C. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 29(2), 449-470. DOI ↗ | Harrison, J. M., & Kreps, D. M. (1979). Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets. Journal of Economic Theory, 20(3), 381-408. DOI ↗ |
| Tên gọi khác | Structural Credit Model, Asset-to-Equity Model | Risk-Neutral Measure, Q-Measure |
| Liên quan≠ | 3 | 4 |
| Tóm tắt≠ | The Merton model (1974) is a structural approach to credit risk in which a firm defaults when its asset value falls below liabilities at maturity. Equity is viewed as a call option on firm value, and debt is an implicit short put position. The model links company fundamentals (asset volatility) to default probability and is foundational for modern credit risk measurement. | Risk-neutral valuation (1979) is the fundamental principle that derivative prices equal the expected payoff discounted at the risk-free rate, computed under a risk-neutral probability measure (Q-measure). This principle, formalized by Harrison and Kreps, eliminates the need to estimate risk premia and is the foundation of modern derivatives pricing. |
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