So sánh phương pháp

	Mô hình ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	Các mô hình Copula (Gaussian, t, Clayton, Gumbel, Frank)	Exponential GARCH (EGARCH)
Lĩnh vực	Kinh tế lượng	Tài chính	Kinh tế lượng
Họ	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Năm ra đời	2015	1959	1991
Người khởi xướng	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Sklar (1959); dependence-concept treatment by Joe (1997)	Nelson
Loại	Univariate time-series model	Dependence model	Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant)
Công trình gốc	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Sklar, A. (1959). Fonctions de répartition à n dimensions et leurs marges. Publications de l'Institut Statistique de l'Université de Paris, 8, 229-231.	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370.
Tên gọi khác	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	copulas, dependence copulas, vine copulas, Kopula Modelleri (Gaussian, t, Clayton, Gumbel, Frank)	exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH
Liên quan	5	5	4
Tóm tắt	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Copula models are a family of functions that describe the dependence structure between variables separately from their individual (marginal) distributions. The foundation is Sklar's theorem (1959), which shows that any multivariate distribution can be split into its marginals plus a copula; Joe (1997) developed the modern catalogue of dependence concepts. They are central to portfolio risk and credit modelling.	EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance.