Порівняння методів

	Модель АРХ (Авторегресивна умовна гетероскедастичність)	Модель ARIMA (Авторегресійна інтегрована ковзна середня)	Модель DCC-GARCH (динамічна умовна кореляція)
Галузь	Економетрика	Економетрика	Економетрика
Родина	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Рік появи	1982	1970	2002
Автор методу	Robert F. Engle	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins	Robert F. Engle
Тип	Conditional volatility model	Time series forecasting model	Multivariate volatility model
Основоположне джерело	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Engle, R. F. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339-350.
Інші назви	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)	DCC-GARCH, Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH, Engle DCC model, multivariate DCC
Пов'язані	6	6	5
Підсумок	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.	The DCC-GARCH model, introduced by Engle (2002), extends univariate GARCH to capture time-varying correlations between multiple financial time series. It decomposes the multivariate conditional covariance matrix into individual volatility processes and a dynamic correlation matrix, allowing correlations to fluctuate over time while remaining computationally tractable even with many series.