เปรียบเทียบวิธี

	Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR)	แบบจำลองมาร์คอฟสลับระบอบ (MS-AR / MS-VAR)
สาขาวิชา	เศรษฐมิติ	เศรษฐมิติ
ตระกูล	Regression model	Regression model
ปีกำเนิด	1986	1989
ผู้ริเริ่ม	Litterman (1986); Bańbura, Giannone & Reichlin (2010)	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)
ประเภท	Bayesian multivariate time-series model	Regime-switching time series model
แหล่งต้นตำรับ	Litterman, R. B. (1986). Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions—Five Years of Experience. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 4(1), 25-38.	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
ชื่อเรียกอื่น	BVAR, Bayesian vector autoregression, Minnesota prior VAR, Bayesian VAR (BVAR)	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR
ที่เกี่ยวข้อง	5	5
สรุป	Bayesian VAR adds Minnesota or other prior distributions to a vector autoregressive model to control over-parameterisation. Introduced by Litterman (1986) and extended to high dimensions by Bańbura, Giannone and Reichlin (2010), it outperforms classical VAR on short series and high-dimensional macroeconomic forecasts.	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.