เปรียบเทียบวิธี

	แบบจำลอง ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)	แบบจำลอง ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	แบบจำลอง DCC-GARCH (Dynamic Conditional Correlation)	แบบจำลอง GARCH (การพยากรณ์ความผันผวน)
สาขาวิชา	เศรษฐมิติ	เศรษฐมิติ	เศรษฐมิติ	เศรษฐมิติ
ตระกูล	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
ปีกำเนิด	1982	1970	2002	1986
ผู้ริเริ่ม	Robert F. Engle	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins	Robert F. Engle	Tim Bollerslev
ประเภท	Conditional volatility model	Time series forecasting model	Multivariate volatility model	Conditional volatility model
แหล่งต้นตำรับ	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Engle, R. F. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339-350.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
ชื่อเรียกอื่น	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)	DCC-GARCH, Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH, Engle DCC model, multivariate DCC	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
ที่เกี่ยวข้อง	6	6	5	5
สรุป	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.	The DCC-GARCH model, introduced by Engle (2002), extends univariate GARCH to capture time-varying correlations between multiple financial time series. It decomposes the multivariate conditional covariance matrix into individual volatility processes and a dynamic correlation matrix, allowing correlations to fluctuate over time while remaining computationally tractable even with many series.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.