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ETS: Hitilafu, Mwenendo, Usanifu wa Majira wa Kielektroniki×Upepeshaji wa kielelezo rahisi na mara mbili (SES / Holt)×Ulainishaji Lainifu wa Kielelezo Mara Tatu wa Holt-Winters×
NyanjaEkonometrikiEkonometrikiEkonometriki
FamiliaRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
Mwaka wa asili200819571960
MwanzilishiHyndman, Koehler, Ord & Snyder (state space framework)Robert G. Brown (SES); Charles C. Holt (linear trend)Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters
AinaExponential smoothing state space modelExponential smoothing forecasting modelExponential smoothing forecasting model
Chanzo asiliaHyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K. & Snyder, R. D. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer. DOI ↗Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control. McGraw-Hill. link ↗Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342. DOI ↗
Majina mbadalaexponential smoothing state space model, innovations state space model, Holt-Winters family, ETS — Hata/Trend/Mevsimsellik Üstel DüzleştirmeSES, Holt's linear trend method, exponential smoothing forecasting, Basit ve Çift Üstel Düzleştirme (SES / Holt)triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme
Zinazohusiana534
MuhtasariETS is a comprehensive exponential smoothing framework that automatically selects additive or multiplicative combinations of the error (E), trend (T) and seasonal (S) components of a time series. Formalised as an innovations state space model by Hyndman, Koehler, Ord and Snyder in 2008, it unifies and generalises the Holt-Winters family of forecasting methods.Exponential smoothing is a family of basic time-series forecasting models in which each new observation updates a smoothed estimate by a weighting parameter. Simple exponential smoothing (SES), introduced by Robert G. Brown in 1959, forecasts series with a stable level, while Holt's double exponential smoothing, introduced by Charles C. Holt in 1957, adds a trend term using the parameters alpha and beta.Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series.
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ScholarGateLinganisha mbinu: ETS Model · Exponential Smoothing · Holt-Winters. Imepatikana 2026-06-19 kutoka https://scholargate.app/sw/compare