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	Bayesiansk vektorautoregression (BVAR)	Markovregimskiftesmodell (MS-AR / MS-VAR)	Vanligaste minsta kvadratmetoden (OLS) Regression
Ämnesområde	Ekonometri	Ekonometri	Ekonometri
Familj	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Ursprungsår	1986	1989	2019
Upphovsperson	Litterman (1986); Bańbura, Giannone & Reichlin (2010)	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares
Typ	Bayesian multivariate time-series model	Regime-switching time series model	Linear regression
Ursprungskälla	Litterman, R. B. (1986). Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions—Five Years of Experience. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 4(1), 25-38.	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860
Alias	BVAR, Bayesian vector autoregression, Minnesota prior VAR, Bayesian VAR (BVAR)	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu
Närliggande	5	5	5
Sammanfattning	Bayesian VAR adds Minnesota or other prior distributions to a vector autoregressive model to control over-parameterisation. Introduced by Litterman (1986) and extended to high dimensions by Bańbura, Giannone and Reichlin (2010), it outperforms classical VAR on short series and high-dimensional macroeconomic forecasts.	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).